By Dr. Priyom Bose, Ph.D.Oct 2 2023Reviewed by Benedette Cuffari, M.Sc. The rapid aging of the global population is expected to become a significant social problem in the future. A recent Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science study investigates the role of temperature rise on mortality rates in the elderly population in China.
Previous studies on temperature-related mortality due to climate change have shown that the risks imposed by cold and hot temperatures are not the same in relation to age. For example, compared to higher temperatures, low temperature causes more global non-communicable deaths. According to a 2021 analysis, the aging rate of the Chinese population has increased by 14%, which is expected to further increase to 21% by 2025. This increase in the aging rate of China’s elderly population will likely continue until 2055 and then stabilize. Due to increasing life expectancy, advanced aging could become a significant issue in China, particularly in the second half of the 21st century.
To determine how temperature change affects this population, all-cause mortality and temperature/humidity data were collected between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2017. This data was categorized into three groups based on age, including 65-79 years , 80-89 years , and 90+ years . Based on the assumption that the population demographics of Nantong remained constant, the study findings indicate that climate change, which is defined as an increase in extremely high temperatures and a decrease in moderately low temperatures , will continue to cause an increase in mortality. Thus, future studies must assess whether climate change will influence positive or negative net annual mortality related to temperature.