But some investors are preparing to strike as valuations drop, according to Alfred Brooks, who as head of JPMorgan's commercial real estate group oversees more than $30 billion of annual originations. That's likely to prevent prices from tumbling into the abyss."You get the headline written that the office market is a catastrophe," Brooks said during a JPMorgan outlook webinar on June 1."That's just wrong.
There are signals that demand could return — at least for the better buildings. According to JLL, a commercial-real-estate services firm, there are"promising signs" from corporate tenants of a gradual re-entry to offices, so much that companies could eventually find themselves short of space.Still, a bottom in the office sector isn't expected anytime soon.
The"tipping point" that investors were waiting for on office debt appears to be here, Manus Clancy, a senior managing director at Trepp, wrote in a June 1 post to clients, suggesting delinquency data is finally beginning to reflect the long-projected distress.
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