America's looming heart crisis: Study forecasts alarming rise in cardiovascular disease and stroke by 2050

By Vijay Kumar MalesuJun 5 2024Reviewed by Susha Cheriyedath, M.Sc. In a recent study published in the journal Circulation, researchers forecasted the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and clinical events in the United States through 2050 and assessed the impact by age, race, and ethnicity using national health survey data.

About the study In the present study, researchers estimated the prevalence of adverse levels of American Heart Association’s Life’s Essential 8, including hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, suboptimal sleep, physical activity, obesity, smoking, and diet. They also assessed coronary heart disease , heart failure , stroke, and atrial fibrillation , along with total CVD and stroke.

Study results The study projected significant increases in adverse cardiovascular health factors among adults aged 20 and older by 2050. Hypertension is expected to rise from 51.2% in 2020 to 61.0% in 2050, diabetes from 16.3% to 26.8%, and obesity from 43.1% to 60.6%. Hypercholesterolemia, however, is projected to decline from 45.8% to 24.0%. While improvements are anticipated in poor diet, physical inactivity, and smoking prevalence, inadequate sleep is expected to worsen.

Racial and ethnic disparities show Black adults with the highest prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, and obesity but the lowest hypercholesterolemia. Hispanic populations exhibit the greatest absolute prevalence increases, while Asian populations show high relative growth. Black adults also have the highest prevalence of inadequate sleep and poor diet, Asian adults the highest physical inactivity, and American Indian /Alaska Native /multiracial adults the highest smoking prevalence.

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