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According to DaSilva, the forecast is based on current conditions that suggest more hurricanes and tropical storms will form. One is that sea-surface temperatures remain much higher than their historical average in the Atlantic, which matches the setting of the incredibly active 2005 and 2020 seasons.
Another major factor is the waning of El Niño conditions and the appearance of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. The switch to colder waters will remove the wind shear that can stop storms from forming or strengthening. "The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season," DaSilva said in the statement."All residents and interests along the U.S. coast, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, should have a hurricane plan in place and always be fully prepared for a direct impact."
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