There’s a catch, though: The calendar year runs from January to December, but the financial year is from April to March. So, to get a realistic estimate she had to use a quarter of the sin tax from 2020 and three-quarters from 2021.Then add another 3.97-billion imported sticks for which Sars collected money to the count.So: 29.1-billion sticks smoked minus 13.5-billion on which tax was paid leaves 15.6-billion sticks being sold illegally.
Sars depends on the tobacco companies to report their production and so the incentive to underreport is substantial. With gap analysis, however, “you can keep track of trends in illicit trade over time”, explains Corné van Walbeek, head of Reep. He adds: “Once you have an idea of those trends, you can see whether illicit trade is increasing or decreasing.”
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