Does PREDICT Accurately Estimate Breast Cancer Survival?

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Survival: Is PREDICT estimate accurate? BCSM breastcancer

vs trastuzumab alone in 8381 patients — 2794 of whom were included in their own analysis.

What the analysis found was that, overall, PREDICT underestimated 5-year OS by 6.7%. The observed 5-year OS was 94.7%, and the predicted 5-year OS was 88.0%. "The underestimation was consistent across all subgroups, including those according to the type of anti-HER2 therapy. The highest absolute differences were observed for patients with hormone receptor–negative disease, nodal involvement, and large tumor size ," they wrote.

To potentially explain the reasons for the underestimation of patients' OS, the authors questioned whether the population used to validate PREDICT accurately mirrored the real-world population of patients with HER2-positive disease treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies.

 

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