WASHINGTON - Large U.S. banks are optimistic they will receive a clean bill of health from the Federal Reserve this week, freeing them up to distribute billions of dollars in excess capital to investors.
Analysts and executives say lenders are well-positioned for the 2022 test, as the economic stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic fade and lenders become more adept at navigating the exam. Still, analysts expect this year's test to be tougher than the 2021 exercise and for bank buffers to be slightly higher as a result.
"There may be more stress, but there ought to be ample excess capital to render this manageable," they wrote.Top bank executives struck a relaxed tone on the tests during a New York conference hosted by Morgan Stanley last week. That equanimity may not last. This year's test is relatively straight-forward partly because the Fed has not had a Vice Chair for Supervision since Randal Quarles stepped down last year.
Barr could restore a requirement that banks must pre-fund nine quarters of expected dividend payments as part of their capital planning, which Quarles had trimmed to four quarters.
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