EXPERTS in epidemiologic modeling of the Department of Health are seeing a possible increase in Covid-19 cases due to a decline in the population’s compliance with minimum public health standards – vital to stopping the virus from spreading.
Based on the disease models, a 20-percent decrease in MPHS compliance at the national level could lead to around 34,788 active cases with over 564 of these as severe and 267 critical in mid-May; while a 30-percent decrease in MPHS compliance might bring the cases up further to as high as 300,000 over the same time period.
However, if Filipinos are to strictly observe MPHS, in addition to getting fully vaccinated and also up to date with their boosters, and assuming no new variant of concern comes in, the analysts said the number of active cases nationwide could decrease and then plateau from 26,256 as of April 12 to just around 1,293 to 16,934 in mid-May.
Lowering transmission will lessen the possibility of emergence of new variants, while high coverage of both primary series and booster doses will greatly contribute to a high defense wall against infection and severe disease.
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