What preliminary data might tell us about the Omicron variant’s future in Canada

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Infection disease experts say the rate of COVID-19 infection among the vaccinated and hospital admissions will likely determine Omicron’s trajectory. With its high vaccination rate, Canada could fare better than others

Infectious disease experts are narrowing their focus on a pair of numbers that will likely determine the trajectory of the Omicron variant in Canada and shape the country’s public-health response.

While Omicron is certainly spreading, serious cases in South Africa appear to be showing up mostly among the unvaccinated. Based on an update from South African colleagues Friday, Dr. Juni said unvaccinated individuals may account for more than 85 per cent of hospital cases there. , that does not translate into a business-as-usual scenario, several experts told The Globe and Mail. This is because of mounting evidence that Omicron is more transmissible than the Delta variant, which is currently dominant, and potentially better able to spread among the vaccinated population.If Omicron is even modestly more transmissible than Delta, it can be expected to eventually take over, just as other variants have before it.

But early estimates for Omicron suggest a transmissibility that ranges from 66 per cent to more than 500 per cent higher than Delta’s – a stunning increase. Nevertheless, he said, while the transmission rate for Omicron has yet to be accurately quantified, the accumulating evidence makes it hard to explain how it has grown so rapidly without at least some improved ability to spread.

An analysis posted online earlier in the week by researchers at the University of South Africa and McMaster University in Hamilton, Ont., also appeared to confirm a. While this is not a direct measure of vaccine effectiveness, the result is in keeping with the idea that Omicron may be better able to dodge the body’s immune response based on the number of genetic changes it exhibits.

 

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