Bank of Kansas City found that, had retirement kept pace with its trend from 2010-2020, there would have been 1.5 million more retirees during the pandemic. But that number actually came in over three million; the number of early retirees alone accounted for predicted retirement numbers.
As Goldman notes, retiring"tends to be stickier" than other reasons someone might leave the labor force. Because of that,"we therefore expect that the participation shortfall from early retirees will unwind relatively slowly through fewer new retirements going forward." Interestingly, the Kansas Fed found that increases in retirement were driven by retirees opting not to come back to the labor force; normally, some retirees return for a variety of reasons. As Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao
, the"return flow to the labor is diminished," but the best case scenario in the future is the end of the pandemic — coupled with a tight labor market — luring those retirees back., the pandemic brought about unprecedented times, and older workers may still be concerned about the health risks the virus continues to pose.
Those 2.5 million retirees abstaining will probably be acutely felt for now. The number of workers quitting their jobs just reached
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高盛表示，250万退休人员可能无法重返工作岗位，这使部分劳动力短缺永久化