As countries rush to get their citizens vaccinated, a debate is heating up among economists about how much herd immunity matters for the world’s economic recovery—or even if it does.
Some view herd immunity—the point at which a critical mass of a population become immune to a disease-causing virus or bacteria—as a key factor in determining when Covid-19 will be conquered and economies will return to normal. Until herd immunity is reached, some say, governments will restrict activities to prevent the disease’s spread, resulting in fewer goods and services being produced and consumed.
Other economists say businesses can reopen and economic activity can rebound without full herd immunity, and likely will. Part of the challenge for economists is that it is hard to know exactly when a given place will achieve herd immunity, if ever., epidemiologists generally believe it will require having at least 60% to 80% of a population develop antibodies, curbing the virus’s ability to spread.
Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have tried to incorporate immunity estimates into their forecasts by looking at daily vaccination progress around the world and take account of estimates of how many people have already been infected.
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