Between August 26 and September 1, there were 10,562 deaths. The number was 934 higher than the predicted number based on historical data.
The number of excess deaths has fallen almost to the highest uncertainty level based on historical predictions.There were 761 confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the same week, meaning the so-called excess deaths are moving into line with the official virus death toll after a period in which they were up to four times higher.
The MRC team said deaths from unnatural causes, such as road accidents and homicides, had continued to increase since the lockdown was downgraded to level 2 on August 18. Unnatural deaths have risen since the lockdown was relaxed to level 2 on August 18. The other vertical lines represent: 1, lockdown level 5; 2, lockdown level 4 with curfew; 3, lockdown level 3 and the unbanning of alcohol sales; and 4, alcohol sales ban and curfew reintroduced.“However, compared with the typical month-end increase that is usually experienced, the number was 6% below the predicted number for the week ending September 1, within the bounds of statistical variation,” they said.
Between May 6, when the number of deaths started to depart from predicted levels, and September 1, excess deaths from natural causes were 42,396 based on a revised baseline that takes account of lower mortality during lockdown. Official Covid-19 deaths in the same period totalled 14,110.