Fergus Walsh: The mystery of early 'Covid' cases

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Fergus Walsh: Was Covid here earlier than we thought?

The blood transfusion service NHSBT has been doing surveillance of the prevalence of Covid-19.

Given that it takes at least two weeks for antibodies to show up, that means those people got infected at least two weeks previously, in early March. Dr Joseph Jacob, a consultant radiologist at UCLH is planning to use artificial intelligence to analyse the scans to look for tell-tale signs of Covid-19.

But we've got to be really careful that we don't retrofit general winter respiratory symptoms to match Covid-19. "One thing that I constantly get told is: 'I must have had Covid in November, December, or January, because my symptoms fit the description.' But that doesn't fit what we've found in samples."

 

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WAY BEFORE WE THOUGHT

Be interesting if it turns out this was the 2nd wave. Guess time will tell.

Yes

Let's be clear on this NOBODY THOUGHT ! Nobody looked to see what was happening. NO ONE CONSIDERED WHAT OTHERS WERE DOING. Blind arrogance. Smart arse, self styled 'experts' were too clever to take notice of what Asia was doing.

Yes I think so, my wife had these symptoms from 23rd Jan 2020 and was very ill and spent a week in ICU, then coronary care. Before we knew of COVID-19

MiriamOCal My dad 84, in December, the worsed 'flu' he ever had, was fine after a week, then got really bad chest, was sick and comatose in his bed for another 2 weeks...?

Of course! It was here earlier than we thought, the US scientists had been started the vaccin since January 2020, that means US have the Covid-19 since October 2019

I'm sure I had it from end of December for 6 weeks. Would love to be able to be tested to find out for sure but as I'm not over 70 or a key worker I'm probably at the bottom of the list for testing.

I am convinced that my wife Debbie and I had the virus at Christmas had a awful cough, temp etc and spent the weekend in bed thinking it was flu. Waiting for the chance to get a antivirus test to see if we have antibodies. LocalGP nurses say they all had something over Xmas too.

Yes, stupid question really.

Yes definitely

I think I had CV at the end of ajanuary

I'm pretty sure I had it in January

Yes, I’m convinced I had it in Nov

London is an international city and estimates are that 15 per cent had the virus. I believe the peak in London was alot earlier and also believe in local rather than national lockdown which South Korea did.

The media is the virus

Flu/other coronoviruses like OC43 produce serious respiratory problems &have majority of covid 19 symptoms. How many covid induced/related deaths are not from covid but the regular yearly viruses. Putting Covid on a death Cert is to easy. DEATH FIGURES ARE MUCH LOWER.

Is she coughing... or practising?😉

Easy to check blood sample taken from October to Jan of last year. No debate after than.

My family went down with it end of October 2019 All same symptoms Took a while to recover Chinese released it much earlier About time Trump-quite rightly-first suggested tariffs on China! Germ warfare from China!

Convinced I had it after travelling to and from Midlands (by coach as I hate m/way driving) for a wedding. Within 5 days of coming home I was totally floored for 3 weeks. Never felt so awful.

Yep, I’m sure I had it in Nov 19, very poorly, I know loads of people that had the symptoms Nov & Dec 19

Stop dwelling on the past and focus on the future!!

Our family had it November we are sure of it. As an asthmatic ex smoker i cough up fluid every morning still, and in November i nearly died and had to pull a placenta sized lump out of ny throat that i moved by smashing my chest into a radiator while coughing. Never had that.

Many comments on here from folks stating they had CoVID-19 symptoms last year, does anyone believe this could be the second wave?

When is the test going out to see if you Have already had it ,,I was bad in December and I think I spread to at least 5 others who where just as bad

Yes, it's not a mystery the Chinese were lying for ages, it was confirmed present in France back in December.

Yep.

We really should be checking all blood samples and re looking at deaths from flu from November 2019 then we may get a clear picture of how many have had covid which will enable us to move forward with more certainty

Seems to be an opportunity lost for the NHSBT not to test for corona virus in February and January blood donations. Are there technical or legal problems or is it best not to ask.

Almost certainly

I’m convinced I had it in December. Went into London for the first time in years to a gig. 2 days later,raging temperature then hacking dry cough lasting 6 weeks. Of course if we had a reliable antibody testing system up and running I wouldn’t have to shield for another 12 weeks.

Im past caring now

Yes

Its finished sooner than i thought aswell....UTB

Pretty convinced November, my brother in law had severe COVID-19 symptoms

I definitely had very similar symptoms early November as did a lot of people I know and it has been confirmed that covid 19 was about in the local area .

It was here then had something that pills didn't shift and every test was clear .

No shit

I was bad early December, breathing was a big problem, temp very high, bad throat..... Had a chest infection which found a mass on, was treated with antibiotics after 3 trips to doctors, which I never saw a doctor. Lasted 4 weeks before I felt any better.

I’ve had friends with exact symptoms November through December!!

why does the BBC report stories so long after other outlets.

Think I may have had it 1st week December gp gave me oxygen at my visit was concerned I was on my own and rang me later in the evening.prescribed steroids, antibiotics and inhalers lasted 2 weeks wiped me out

Yes

Of course it was

I believe so. I work in London (live in Midlands) was poorly working in London in December. Then at Christmas at home past it onto brother in-law & mum who was really poorly. It completely wiped my running ability & I’ve not been able to run properly since. Fitness has all gone.

I feel that it has. I think the source has kept this information from us from the start.

philrandall Would imagine there were plenty of people flying into the UK from China from December onwards. So it is almost inevitable that coronavirus was in UK from then.

A friend came down with this in November. All the symptoms, ventilated, stroke, heart attack....and yes, you’ve guessed it....never tested.

Great piece of work Fergus.

Ignored by the government causing thousands of lives. Borders wide open.

RoundLike Yes, before last Christmas.

Does it matter? Of course....as everyone has been following the rules dictated to us as result of Illness statistics created into an infection development curve. If it started in November the curve we have been monitoring so carefully is wrong and the current rules incorrect

Definitely.

MiriamOCal Same in Ireland. Ppl sick in December & January with high temps , constant cough & respiratory illness. If it was infecting ppl back then lets hope we have seen the second wave if it is expected to happen.

Yes, it was. And the government should be ordering t6e NHS to check blood samples and x rays taken at that time. But they won’t as it would show they were as,eeep in the job of investigating and preventing infection

jan_sabin Yes

Yes.

It spread pretty fast just like that Ebola stuff Did do you think they may have just changed the name of the virus so not freak everyone out knowing that it is a killer disease

Had it last summer I'm sure, all symptoms, doctors seemed confused at time, nearly a month signed off

We have thought the same. Myself, husband and daughter all had cough, temp, and loss of appetite in early feb. I personally didnt eat for 8 days as nothing tasted right.

We both had the symptoms around Christmas time and thought nothing of it. It’s only retrospectively that we put two and two together but again the timeline seemed unlikely.

It’s called Covid 19 as it started in 2019 , we were in Scotland in November and lots had people had the shocking cough !! Which was not responding to antibiotics, we thought it was corona looking back 🤷🏼‍♂️

I fully agree!!!! We had a girl at our work who had a case of pneumonia end of December, that didn’t get better with the medicine they gave her. She could barely breathe. We all then had something very similar but not as extreme!

Yes have thought so for months many people I know had similar symptoms before Xmas 19

There must be thousands of lung tissue samples from late last year that can be reviewed?

I was reading that a team of Icelandic scientists have traced the paths of infection through genetic drift. One of their conclusions is that the virus in Europe actually spread from Britain.

I was told that the virus has been in the UK since Oct. Obvs that can't be confirmed and probs never will be. I think it's been released far earlier than the chinese say. When I say 'released', that's exactly what I meant to say, from a laboratory!

Please don’t use photo of coughing on the hand which helps spread virus. This is a reinforcing opportunity to remind people to cough into tissue or elbow.

I’m convinced I came down with this November 16th last year, lasted till mid January and I have NEVER been so ill! Got better and then it came at me again even worse! Bad cough, vomiting, bed ridden, body aches, severe sore throat etc. Literally felt like death 💀 Covid

Was ill in Feb, dry harsh cough that was so persistent, fever for 3-4 days, exhausted. 3 weeks later a chest infection, coughed so hard I lost my voice! Finally got over it all 2 weeks b4 lockdown!

No, the Chinese released it only on 31st December 2019. Xi Jingping has admitted to it and has been detained by the CCP awaiting trial. Lastest news from the Chinese media.

Like many others, i was ill in November/December/January. I couldnt shake it. As im asthmatic, we are very watchful. I kept fainting, cough was worse than normal, no taste, no smell, no energy. Docs kept saying its got to go through your system/run its course.

BREAKING NEWS The R RATE has gone ABOVE ONE in the North West. Boris Johnson's OWN GUIDELINES should now that dictate an IMMEDIATE 'push back' of ALL Lockdown relaxations. Johnson is making the SAME MISTAKES ALL OVER AGAIN. borisjohnsonfailedthenation

If it was much earlier it calls into question whether Wuhan really was the source. Maybe Wuhan was just the first hotspot?

I'm sure I had it over Christmas / new year

ONS data, out of 40000 deaths 'with' cv19, 37500app over 75, 2500app under 75, this means you have 0.003% chance of dying 'with' cv19 if you're under 75! And of all those dying 'with' vast majority have underlying health issues! No need for masks or anything else!

It’s a joke!!!...right? Officials have been lied 🤥 about the world 🌍 pandemic ;and it’s about time China was investigated 🤯🤯🤯 ffs!!! Trying to play GOD 🤬

Get Panorama on it ....

December 2019

Yessssss New Year’s Eve 2020 most of my workplace was ill with a cough and in bed

Oh give up and report something newsworthy, there’s lots out there, this was debunked several times

Back in oct nov lots of people had coughs that would not go away you think about the amount of people travelling then before lock down no chance to contain it at all

My daughter has shown 2 symptoms - conjunctivitis and covid toes. If she's had it, she may have got infected 29th Feb/ 1st March at swim meet in Glasgow.

This has been the second wave

Probably, I rather hope that we trace the start of the outbreak to the USA with all the fuss Trump made calling it the China Virus.

And so it goes on people with different theories different thought on how the government has acted. It dosent matter now you can have all the investigation all the Westminster chats and attacks however we are were we are

3 December someone had a continuous dry cough for the entire 2 hour bus journey from West Devon to Exeter. I later had a very mild cold. 27 December my partner got pneumonia, which lasted best part of 2 months.

I was I'll In January... extremely bad caugh... bad chest & temperature, I ended up with ear infection aswell. The walk in, just treated me for my ear & was told that I just need rest regarding my caugh and chest.... them symptoms sound Rather familiar to Covid 19.

Of course it was, probably December! COVID19

Yes

It’ll be here later than we thought.

We were terribly ill for weeks starting the 2nd week in December. I have underlying health conditions so not unusual for me but my very healthy husband and teenage son struggled to fight it too. We all had bad coughs along with the other symptoms of Covid. Coincidence 🤷‍♀️

I had what I thought was flu at Christmas. Now I know it was more than likely Covid 19. Never felt anything like it. Coughing up blood. Doc is saw practically laughed at me. Not so funny now!

Perhaps you try asking the Chinese

Yes..absolutely!!!

Ask the Chinese they'd know

I felt like shit Jan-April. sore throat, cough, headache, loss of taste, loss of hearing, and three nights not being able to breathe (not all at once thankfully). Was it CCPv? dunno. But it wouldn't surprise me. Plenty of vector opportunities in Birmingham.

Yes I would say it was really I’ll in November myself also some members of my family x

Definitely! I know people who came back from Italy in December and were mildly Ill for a few days!

Definitely. A friend of mine seriously ill in November with respiratory illness. Off work for a month then relapsed a couple of weeks later.

Yes... about 3.40am.

I think I had it before christmas with a couple of others I know. Coughing, fever, shattered. Might have just been a chest infection, but could've been an early case prior to us knowing about it.

Only takes a plane ride from wherever. High tally is likely to be tightly linked with duration the infection has been in the community unchecked. November-Dec is probably the very latest it was here.

We both had awful coughs before Christmas. Lasted weeks and felt unwell for at least a month afterward.

Of course it was, again covered up by the Chinese government. Which means we were always up against it in the first place regardless who had won the GE.

Yes

Yes, December and Jan when I was really ill for 4 weeks and I am willing to speak up about it

Nonsense

Or maybe it was the seasonal flu, as usual which has similar symptoms....

Something went through my place of work in November, loads of staff off including myself with a flu like bug with symptoms which could be equated to covid-19. I myself was bed ridden for days and a colleague of mine had said he had never felt as ill as he had with that bug.

I had something nasty 31st January- February 6th couldn’t stop coughing felt awful sweating fever etc. I was on a flight with lots of Chinese mask wearing types

I have not been tested but had all the symptoms back in Jan albeit mild compared to what we have seen now. Two types of antibiotics and a coarse of steroids couldn’t shift it. It took weeks to recover.

I’m convinced I had it in December. I had a horrible cough, high temperature and struggled to breathe, it lasted weeks. I would start to feel better and then boom, it started again, it was horrible, I suppose I will never know.

Well the whole country seemed to have problems with throats and breathing in January, maybe that was coronavirus before it mutated to Covid 19.

Completely agree with the comment made about the cough that could kill a horse. I was very ill throughout November ( breathless too for 7 days) having recently returned from Europe. I self isolated until I felt better and had very limited contact with the outside world

I started having breathing difficulties last October. Had to see a respiratory specialist who tested me for these issues. She couldn’t ascertain what was causing the weak lung gas exchange taking place. Supposed to be called back, but understandably, was not. I feel fine now?

My boy has had it. One of the boys in his class had a grandma living in Wuhan who died of suspected pneumonia in December. His mum had been going to visit her. January, 40% of my son’s class were off with some strange illness. He lost his taste and smell and had a cough.

I'd like to see more investigation into those who have gotten sick mildly but it has lasted weeks and weeks flaring up over and over.

Positive my son had it at the end of October

Something went though our workplace in late December/early January and it was identical symptoms to the Covid 19 - Hacking cough, temperature which in my case lasted 10 days and lost sense of taste. Loads of us had it.

I think I had the coronavirus in February. I live in Texas in the US.

I think my husband and I had it in October, I’ve had flu before but this was so much worse, was coughing for months, utterly washed out, asthma still affected at times. Would be interesting to find out if we had antibodies in our bloodstream xx

My mother in law died from pneumonia in early December. I'm now wondering if it was Covid 19.

There are students studying in the UK from Wuhan,some of which went home for Christmas and came back. It's inconceivable that coronavirus wasn't here before March

I’m sure my husband got it in February after returning from Austria where there were lots of Italians. All the symptoms and pneumonia. Floored him for 4 weeks.

Of course it was. Lots of people were feeling odd way before the alarm bells. Contagion will be fast and global with millions of people flying all over globe. For Holidays and selfish reasons because can. If you dont care about lives, look at the economy.

Yes! I believe I had it from December the 10th,,, worst flu I have ever had,, and I had all the symptoms that Coronavirus gives people!

Which strain? There are at least three confirmed Covid19 strains. Plus a new Sars that didn't follow the usual slow walking route from China to Europe/US via Australia that provides enough time to create a flu vaccine to sell the the NHS.

yes , I am sure I had it in December I spent Christmas and the new year in bed all of January and part of February I was exhausted . I was not the only one in my area with these symptoms .

Definitely as sure we had it Nov/ Dec jus waiting to get access to antibody test to prove it

Who do the news act like they don’t know the answer lmao

Both my husband and I had all the symptoms at the beginning of December

Absolutely it was here in the autumn

Almost certainly. While the Chinese Marxists the BBC prefers not to criticise were still denying virtually every fact they knew about it.

100% seen hundreds of posts and my dad having every symptom back in December, wouldn't mind betting that was the second peak we just had

Very interesting

Yes, loads of people I know had exactly all the symptoms from end Oct onwards

100% YES... Knew loads of people that were ill in January and coughing like crazy.... This is the 3rd wave I reckon

I had a terrible cough and felt really unwell at the end of January and my grandson who is 17 was very ill with cough and flu like symptons late Feb. He never had a day off in his school life, he was in bed over a week, I have never seen him so ill.

I think it’s entirely possible, I have close family who had what we now know are the symptoms around Xmas Doctors were unable to diagnose anything other than some form of virus.

Here in NE England, we had issues in schools in Nov/Dec. Flu season does hit schools hard but in my 20 years of teaching I’ve never experienced this occurrence.

I was ill November last year have never been that ill all my life 10 weeks it lasted i couldn't breathe properly kept having a steam bath and just slept it scared me

Of course it was, I know too many people with the symptoms who were ill in January

Yes all my family was ill nov/dec it’s been about earlier than March...

Frustratingly, NHSBT says it has no plans to check donations made in February or January, which would give firmer evidence about the origins of Covid-19 in the UK.

Definitely.. judging by the symptoms I had it in December.. what is it!!! They still don’t know! I think it’s more than one thing or mutates?

Does it matter? The U.K. ‘s response remains inadequate many months after the news first broke. In some countries, knowing sooner might have had an effect. In the U.K.? Please.

Just me or this situation resemble very close what has been depicted in V for Vendetta?!? 😳

I absolutely convinced I had covid Jan 2019. I was in bed for 3 weeks, high temperature dry cough, went to pneumonia, anti bio wouldn't work, ibuprofen made it worse, Dr was baffled, felt like an elephant was sat on my chest. I couldn't walk up/down stairs more than once per day

It's certainly here longer than we thought 😒

December last year ...all the nasty symptoms ..but the virus wasnt famous , it had no name ..so everyone just took it as a bastard of a flu ..got on with going to work ....and got better !!!

Tell us something we don’t already know! I was very ill with a terrible cough just before Christmas lasted ages

I was so bloody ill over Christmas. I had flu symptoms but also my breathing was so laboured, felt terrible. Without wanting to sound like Karen the self-diagnosing doctor, I’m absolutely sure now it was coronavirus.

My friend had an antibody test org by work. Shows she has had it. Was ill with a temp & bad cough for 2 weeks in early Jan..healthy since.

Yep

I am sure my mum.had it way back in Oct. Ahe was in hospital and was suddenly taken very ill with pneumonia type symptons, and the enzyme reading from the liver was something they had never seen before. She was put in icu on a cpap machine. Thankfully she recovered.

Oh you’re back on coronavirus now? Lets see if there is a major spike in 14-20 days from now, because of the protestors and rioter gatherings of the pst week.

We had it in January. Someone I spoke to ar a distance said he had it last December

Simple answer yes, way before we where told about it.

Did we have an early seasonal flu in UK with similar symptoms and pneumonia like effects to CV19? Is this the reason we have had people with symptoms of CV19 but testing negative. Could this be the reason for the higher excess deaths?

Think I had it mid December after a visit to London to see turn on of regent Street lights.

The way I was in December, I think it was.

My dad was hospitalised in December with what they called ‘ a bad chest infection’. He could hardly talk with a sore throat, cough and a raging temperature. I’m convinced he had it!

Yes

I think so, as i had most of the symptoms that have been mentioned around the week of christmas and new year. Not been anywhere near that ill since i had pneumonia years ago.

HCoV-OC43... interesting this is only being raised now. Countless examples were reported on here of a respiratory virus in Britain before Christmas!!

My wife had it in December before Christmas and was hospitalised with it. She was lucky to pull through. It was diagnosed as pneumonia at the time but all her symptoms were exactly those of Covid-19 and doctors weren't sure why she didn't respond to treatment for days.

IMPORTANT: Please check out my profile if you are protesting or know someone who is. I have a whole thread based on precautions, tips etc. It’s the first tweet. Share it as much as you can.Stay safe!

I've had really bad flu back in January. It lasted nearly a month and had chest pains for almost 2 months. Lots of shivers and fever.. sounds familiar. 🤷‍♀️

It's always hear as there are many strains its just this is a particularly aggressive one

Yes, for sure. Two of my friends were very I'll in December 19. All with Covid19 symptoms !

I'm finding out that, like me, so many people had a weird rapid cough and cold symptoms around November time, different to their normal cold.

Yes

Yes I think 2016 I was sat next a lady at a function who was ill and coughing when I returned home I was violatlety sick for over a week could not leave my bed coughing sweating shivering and the same happened last year had to call doctor and get Antbiotics so I think was dorment

My wife and I were quite ill with flu like symptoms over Christmas and into the New Year. When the CoVid-19 story started to break, we began to wonder if we'd had it. My wife has recently had the antibody test and it was negative.

Wife really unwell all through February,extremely bad cough ,doc told her she had some form of flu ,gave her antibiotics and sent her for x ray 🤔

Most likely, I had work colleagues in my area who were going off sick big boy time back in late December, early January time

It was here in the UK around October November everyone was ill

My son and I were floored for the first week in January, ages 22 and 59. Felt like the worst flu ever, confined to bed for 5-6 days, difficult breathing, repetitive cough, high fever, little appetite. I couldn’t shake it completely till end Feb. We went to Prague at New Year!

I think the majority have either had these symptoms before the first case was confirmed or at least know other people who have somakes perfect sense that this has been around a lot longer than we first thought

Likewise, has it disappeared from society earlier than we thought BBC?

pandemic is real... but we have to stop behaving like now ! we have to get back to work and stop the Chinese stuff to come over ...otherwise we'll see more deaths from economic reason, than entire pandemic was giving us.

Morning

What about man flu far far worse

Been here since at least December and running rife long before any talk of lockdowns.

For sure. October ish. Possibly as the university's opened up to accept international students?

It’s a pity that there are so many wacky replies on this thread because they diminish the potential seriousness of the OP? There are many timeline questions, though - why so relatively low community transmission before March? Why so few deaths (evidenced by ONS figures)?

I felt utterly crap in January with a bad cough and temperature as did many of my friends... You do the math.

Yes it was here also, I am in agreement with this research, prior to 2019 also Corona was here on this earth since 2010

Yes!!

I was unwell over the Christmas period eight days with a cough and I had trouble with my breathing but it was put down to normal flu.

My local newspaper had an article regarding respiratory disease and the difficulties in knowing why there were so many cases in MK, April 2019! mk_citizen

Most likely so.

WAKE UP PEOPLE! It's been in Europe since the end of last year. It's tragic that people have died but it's now restricted almost exclusively to care homes and a little in hospitals. Shield these areas but everyone else should be out there living and working! END THIS MADNESS!

I think we had it here as early as November

Yes. Coronavirus (yearly illnesses triggered by our immune system) have been with us for many, many, many years.

Of course it was. Right back to last year.

No

Of course it was, many think they had the virus later 2019 but here we are and still no anti body tests

Just to clarify! For those who don't know the R value is the amount of infection present in society which guides the Tories on the death count they're looking to achieve. You're Welcome!

I had all coronavirus symptoms except anosmia a week before Christmas.

Yes. Since like forever. It is a virus (well that is what my Mum told me).

It got out of the lab in Wuhan in October.

Yes probably 2.5 billion years ago!

Yeah it arrived at 6.45am and not 11.20am as previously thought

Yeah, back in January. When did we lockdown, again?

WHO warns : coronavirus PANDEMIC it's just a beginning !! Trust us, the worst is yet ahead of us.

BBCFergusWalsh Really nice article, and raises a lot of important questions. Ever since seeing the news of the Paris patient(s) from Dec whose samples tested +ve - it might have been in UK/the West in general by Dec, but was it widespread? (1/2)

Of course it was. It’s been here since at least December

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