John Ivison: Federal health agency’s report on COVID-19 projections opts for soft-soap over science

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coronavirus, COVID-19, Theresa Tam, Justin Trudeau

Normality will not come back as before until a COVID vaccine has been developed, the prime minister admitted in his daily briefing.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer added his harsh tidings, saying the federal deficit is set to reach $184 billion this year – 8.5 per cent of GDP – thanks, in part, to the $2,000 a month emergency response benefit, which he estimated will cost $22.3 billion.That was not the case with the federal government’s best guess on how the virus is likely to play out on the health front.

Horacio Arruda, Quebec’s public health director, said models predicting the course of COVID-19 would have as much scientific veracity as a horoscope – the day before releasing his department’s projection model at the behest of his premier. If no controls at all are put in place, the model suggested the infection rate could reach 80 per cent and result in up to 400,000 deaths.But the implication from the presentation deck was that, if we achieve the epidemic control scenario through isolation, travel bans and hand-washing, only a relatively small number of people will get sick and die. To put 11,000 deaths into context, in 2018, 8,511 Canadians died of influenza and pneumonia.

The slide in the Public Health Agency deck that suggested strong interventions would keep infections to five per cent of the population was, in Attaran’s view “garbage”.

 

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I dont expect the government to be as good as Taiwan handling the situation, I do expect it to be rational and put its people’s lives on the first place.

Which countries have authorised the use of chloroquine? The US Food and Drugs Administration, the body in charge of licensing medicines in America, has granted 'emergency use' authorisation for these drugs in the treatment of Covid-19 for a limited number of hospitalised cases.

Latest canadian covid model.

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