People line up outside a shop in Wuhan as lockdown measures are lifted. Image: PA Images People line up outside a shop in Wuhan as lockdown measures are lifted. Image: PA Images AGGRESSIVE CONTROL MEASURES appear to have halted the first wave of coronavirus in areas outside Hubei province in China, research suggests.
Mathematical modelling suggests premature lifting of control measures is likely to lead to transmissibility exceeding one again, resulting in a second wave of infection.However, the study did not specifically examine the effect of each intervention, or which was most effective in containing the spread of the virus.
“Although control policies such as physical distancing and behavioural change are likely to be maintained for some time, proactively striking a balance between resuming economic activities and keeping the reproductive number below one is likely to be the best strategy until effective vaccines become widely available.”
On 23 January stringent restrictions were put on the movement of people and goods after the outbreak in Wuhan.“We are acutely aware that as economic activity increases across China in the coming weeks, local or imported infection could lead to a resurgence of transmission,” said co-lead author Dr Kathy Leung, from the University of Hong Kong.