The results also indicate that experts expect a grim death toll — somewhere in the range of 195,000 deaths in the U.S. by the end of the year.
Reich calls the Imperial College report “one of the more comprehensive modeling efforts” of the coronavirus to have come out so far. But, he adds, “I would say that I think their ‘no intervention’ scenario is a baseline that will not come to pass given how much is already underway.” The aggregate findings of their models’ forecasts estimated the probability of an event of that scale — more than 1.5 million deaths in the U.S. — at about six percent.
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