How deadly is coronavirus, and can it be contained?

The two outbreaks in recent memory that give the most insight into these questions are the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, which spread from China to 26 other countries but was contained after eight months, and the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, which originated in Mexico and spread globally despite all containment efforts.

As with the 2009 pandemic, initial reports from Wuhan described small numbers of both deaths and cases. On January 20, there were six deaths out of 282 confirmed cases. By January 28, there were 106 deaths from about 4,500 confirmed cases. So, with all of this uncertainty, how much effort should public health officials put into containment, quarantine and isolation activities? Should all airports be implementing temperature screening for incoming passengers? There are no easy answers to these questions, as there are only a few historical examples to look back on. And, none of them is guaranteed to be a template for this year's 2019-nCoV epidemic.

A key characteristic to examine in these two disease profiles is whether symptoms appear before transmissibility -- i.e. at a point when patients are not yet able to infect others -- or the other way around. For SARS, symptoms usually appeared before transmissibility. This feature made SARS containable.

To answer this question, we can look at data from containment efforts during the 2009 pandemic. In 2009 I was working at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, where containment efforts relied on a live synthesis of airline passenger data, symptoms data, isolation data, and diagnostics data that were coming in on a daily basis.

On the one hand, a containment effort like this can be viewed as a success. The virus's entry into the city was slowed down, and an epidemic that seemed imminent in mid-June was held off until late July.

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Those questions had been answered by other countries with their actions try to do the same.

it is deadlier and fatal than aids,sars,mers combined. the world need the top caliber scientist ,big or small, of medical manufacturing companies worldwide to work together. there is a possibility by late 2020 china will be a Z.......& probably the whole of asia.

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